Despite the fact that June was declared the deadliest and most difficult month for foreign forces in Afghanistan, US President George Bush plans to send fresh forces to Afghanistan. Even Barack Obama, whose success in the next presidential election is still not certain, has promised to ask the Europeans to send more troops for war in Afghanistan.

The foreign troop surge shows that the military option to win the war against the Taleban in the south and east is still a fundamental strategy. Maybe, George Bush believes in the effect of air strikes of American warplanes more than anyone else at the White House. Bush may think that the Europeans and Karzai will bear and carry on this costly war.

The Europeans are afraid of their wavering public opinion and death of their soldiers, and the Afghan government forces have turned into shields for the NATO forces in the country’s south. It was very painful that eight Afghan policemen were killed in Panjwai District of Kandahar Province last week, but the deaths of these soldiers do not have any effect in improving the situation in the south. Despite that, the USA is hopeful that the Afghan security forces will be able to take over the war against the Taleban by 2011 and NATO will play a role of advisor in the war. This means that we will not be able to put an end to the war against the Taleban by 2011, but we will have an experienced Afghan army and police.

There is a very simple question: Does an increase in the foreign military in Afghanistan help Afghanistan’s security and defeat the Taleban in the south and east?

Answering this question has both positive and negative aspects. The positive point is that the troop build-up fulfils the demand of NATO for more troops in Afghanistan. On the other hand, Mr Karzai can also remain assured that he enjoys enough military support in the war against the Taleban and still has the support of White House.

But this alone is not enough. The Taleban have been able to expand their influence and strengthen positions in different parts of the country, and their movements have not been reduced despite the offensives of the Afghan National Army and NATO forces in the wars such as in Arghandab. The Taleban, however, do not have the ability to wage a frontal war against the Afghan and foreign forces in the best time.

But the foreign troop surge means the continuation of war, and this surge shows more preparations are needed to defeat the Taleban.

As the foreign military build-up is not made to control Afghanistan’s borders with Pakistan and the Taleban can easily cross the border, the troop surge does not create much optimism. This policy [foreign troop surge] is effective if the Taleban do not enjoy financial and intelligence support on the other side of the border and if the Pakistan army stops supporting Taleban’s prominent commanders in Afghanistan. If Pakistan’s borders remain open to the Taleban, intelligence information is given to them, the Taleban continue treating their wounded soldiers in Pakistan, and the Pakistan religious schools provide the Taleban with fresh fighters, then what will be the big impact of the foreign troop surge against the Taleban?

It is only the Taleban that can gain victory in a guerrilla war and suicide attacks and then fleeing to another country. Boosting foreign military forces can have more effect only in a face-to-face war - an issue the Taleban cannot dare and do not have the ability to carry out.

More than 20 civilians were killed in an air strike in Nurestan Province. The UN in Afghanistan is speaking of a 60 per cent increase in civilian casualties. Military operations also harm ordinary people besides the Taleban in Afghanistan. By warning about civilian casualties, some people are saying that the USA should not make the mistake the Russians made. This means that civilian casualties can lead to a kind of general discontent. Therefore, many are concerned that civilians will suffer more casualties and financial losses with the increase of foreign troops and the prolonging of the war, and the country will once again be caught in a devastating civil war.

As long as the US strategy remains based on the wrong philosophy of forbearance towards Pakistan and fighting the Taleban in Afghanistan, the foreign forces will only contribute to the prolonging of the war, push Afghanistan towards another civil war, and considerably strengthen extremism in the south. The foreign forces are killing some Taleban, but more despotic Taleban are coming from Quetta, Karachi and North Waziristan and joining the war in Helmand, Kandahar and Konar Provinces after being told by Pakistani clerics that they will go to paradise.

source: http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewiStockNews+articleid_2376441~title_Foreign-Troop-Surge.html